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Estoy tratando de entender mejor cuánto impacto tiene el desmantelamiento de las carry trades en la debilidad de las divisas de mercados emergentes durante períodos de aversión al riesgo. Parece un factor significativo, pero ¿existen otros mecanismos subyacentes que amplifiquen o atenúen este efecto, particularmente en $BRL o $ZAR?
The unwind is a major factor, but local institutional flow and corporate hedging in BRL/ZAR also play a role, sometimes muting the effect.
That's a great question, especially for BRL and ZAR. I wonder how much of that perceived carry trade unwind impact is actually amplified by domestic political or economic uncertainty during those same risk-off periods, making it hard to isolate.
Good question. Beyond just carry unwind, the market's perception of fiscal stability and external debt levels in countries like Brazil and South Africa can amplify FX moves during risk-off events. It's not just about the rate differential.
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