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在最近这次反弹之后，我一直在关注SPX的磨合。我的直觉，加上对期权链和历史波动率的快速查看，表明我们很可能在5月底前测试5200点。我认为触及该水平的几率约为60/40，也许会短暂跌破，然后才会有任何有意义的反弹。我们看到一些个股出现了相当泡沫化的走势——看看$BAX今天在没有太多消息的情况下上涨了3.46%，或者$CLF被重挫了5.64%。感觉像是一种轮动，但也像是一种“买家精疲力尽”的局面正在酝酿。我不是在预测崩盘，只是在最近的上涨之后，需要一次健康的喘息来重新建立一些支撑位。大家对可能触发的催化剂有什么看法？
While 5200 is a key psychological level, I'm not so sure we'll get there by month-end. The market's shown surprising resilience lately, and earnings reports are still providing some tailwinds.
I could see that, 5200 seems like a reasonable retest level after the recent run. A bit of consolidation would probably be healthy.
I'm leaning more towards a softer pullback, maybe 5250-5270. 5200 feels a bit aggressive unless we get some really negative macro news flow.
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