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最近一直在密切关注标普500指数，我真的很好奇在下一批美联储评论发布前，我们还会看到多少波动。今天$EWZ在35.34附近交易，感觉整个市场普遍存在紧张情绪，即使它没有直接关联。我倾向于标普500指数在月底前能守住5100点上方，前提是没有重大的鹰派意外。我的直觉是，这种情况发生的概率约为60%，主要是因为我认为市场已经消化了相当程度的“更高更久”言论。跌破5050点似乎不太可能，可能只有20%的概率，除非下周的通胀数据或就业数据出现真正出人意料的情况。其他人怎么看？你们认为会深度回测支撑位，还是盘整是更可能的路径？
I'm also wondering how much impact the Fed comments really have anymore. It feels like so much is already priced in, but then sometimes there's a big reaction out of nowhere. What do you think traders are looking for specifically that could move the market?
Comparing S&P 500 volatility to EWZ's daily trade seems like a stretch. While there's always Fed-induced nervousness, a direct read-through from one emerging market ETF to broad US market stability might be overstating the connection. Hard to predict a floor like 5100 based on that.
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