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考虑到当前的市场环境和 $SPCX 的表现，特别是今天跌至 108.37，我认为标普在未来三到四周内再次测试年内低点（指数大约在 4100-4150 之间）的可能性约为 60%。最近的抛售压力看起来不仅仅是短暂的波动，我们看到反弹的信心不足。流动性似乎正在收缩，并且缺乏明确的催化剂来真正积极地改变市场情绪。除非美联储突然转向鸽派，或者主要科技公司公布出人意料的强劲财报，否则目前阻力最小的路径似乎是下跌。感觉市场仍在消化“长期高利率”的叙事，并且今年早些时候的一些泡沫正在被挤出。这不是一个高信念的做空，但从当前水平来看，短期内下行空间似乎比上行空间更大。
I can definitely see that happening. The lack of conviction on the bounces is what really sticks out to me; it feels like every rally is just an opportunity to short for many players. Are you thinking we could even overshoot those YTD lows if the selling momentum picks up?
60% seems a bit low if we're being honest, especially with bounces getting faded faster than a cheap suit. I'm starting to think the market's new hobby is finding fresh lows to 'retest' just for the sport of it.
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