SPX Re-testing YTD Lows Seems Probable Short-Term

Considering the current climate and the $SPCX performance, particularly today's drop to 108.37, I'd put the odds of the S&P re-testing the year-to-date lows (roughly 4100-4150 on the index) somewhere around 60% within the next three to four weeks. The recent selling pressure looks like more than just a momentary blip, and we're seeing less conviction on bounces. Liquidity seems to be pulling back, and there's a lack of a clear catalyst to really shift sentiment positively. Unless we get a sudden dovish pivot from the Fed or some surprisingly robust earnings from a major tech player, the path of least resistance appears to be lower for now. It feels like the market is still digesting the higher-for-longer narrative, and some of the froth from earlier in the year is being bled out. Not a high-conviction short, but the downside seems to have more room than the upside from these levels in the immediate term.