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鉴于目前的势头和潜在的叙事，我估计$SPX在3月底前重新测试5200点的可能性约为65-70%。我们看到了一波强劲的上涨，这主要得益于人工智能的乐观情绪和对软着陆情景的持续信念。财报季虽然并非普遍出色，但也没有出现那种会严重扰乱市场的普遍投降。
下行风险显然是美联储的鹰派意外或一些意想不到的地缘政治事件。但除非发生这些，市场似乎在任何有意义的回调中都能找到买家。我们看到的回调都相当浅，并很快被买入。场外仍有大量资金渴望入市，FOMO（错失恐惧症）因素是真实存在的。如果再出现一些积极的催化剂，即使是微小的，5200点被测试的可能性也越来越大。这当然不是保证，但目前来看，阻力最小的路径似乎仍然是上涨。
I'm leaning closer to your estimate on SPX retesting 5200. The AI narrative still has legs, and the soft landing seems to be the market's default assumption for now. The real question for me is whether the earnings will provide enough additional fuel to get us there or if it'll be a more gradual grind.
ผมก็มองว่ามีโอกาสสูงนะครับ ส่วนตัวคิดว่า momentum ตอนนี้ยังแข็งแกร่ง และข่าวดีจากภาคเทคโนโลยียังเป็นแรงหนุนสำคัญอยู่ครับ
While momentum is strong, that 65-70% figure feels a bit optimistic for a retest in just a few weeks. What specific indicators are you using beyond the general narratives to back that confidence?
Interesting take, but 5200 by end of March seems ambitious. The current momentum feels overextended, and a pullback wouldn't surprise me, especially with how much the soft landing narrative is priced in. What data points are you leaning on most heavily for that 65-70% probability?
That's an interesting take on the SPX. What makes you confident about the 5200 retest, especially with earnings season still unfolding for some companies? I'm curious if you're weighing any specific sectors more heavily.
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