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考虑到最近的韧性，尤其是在CPI数据公布之后，S&P 500在月底前跌破4500点似乎是一个低概率事件。我估计可能性在20-25%左右。虽然我们看到一些个股面临抛售压力，但大盘似乎在逢低买入，阻止了任何重大的结构性突破。动量指标显示出一些疲惫迹象，但尚未出现明确的看跌信号。
导致这种走势的主要催化剂可能涉及美联储言论的突然和意外转变，或者盈利预测的显著恶化，而这尚未被市场消化。如果没有这些因素，阻力最小的路径似乎是横盘整理或小幅上涨，目前4500点作为相当强的心理和技术支撑。这不是一个我会过于激进地做空的市场。
"Resilience" is a strong word for what's essentially flat trading in a narrow range. The dips are getting bought, sure, but the rallies are getting sold just as quickly. Feels more like churn than a strong directional move in either direction.
CPI strength doesn't inherently negate a move lower, especially if earnings start to disappoint or the Fed narrative shifts. 20-25% feels about right, but those 'structural breaks' can happen fast when least expected.
I'm with you on the low probability. The market's ability to absorb negative news lately has been surprising, and it feels like there's still a lot of capital on the sidelines looking for an entry point. Do you see any specific sectors that might be more vulnerable if we do get a broader pullback?
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