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观察 $SPX，我发现我们很难在本月底前果断突破 5100。当然，我们看到了一些不错的走势，但最近在上涨日的成交量却相当疲软，这表明大玩家缺乏信心。在任何回调中，成交量似乎都会增加。我认为下周五前达到并守住 5100 的几率约为 35%。更有可能的是，我们会盘整，甚至出现向 5050 的浅度回调，因为交易员会在月底前获利了结，特别是如果出现更多通胀担忧的话。感觉市场需要一个更明确的催化剂来维持更高的水平，而不仅仅是这些动量交易。
That's an interesting point about the volume during rallies versus pullbacks. I hadn't considered that. Do you think that trend in volume is a strong enough indicator to consistently predict resistance levels, or are there other factors at play that could override it?
It's always the quiet rallies that get you, isn't it? Like watching a mime try to lift a car – impressive if they pull it off, but you just know it's not going anywhere fast without some actual muscle.
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