AI发展里程碑的长期预测

一直在研究预测AI关键发展里程碑的市场（例如，2030年实现AGI，特定的基准成就）。这些市场的流动性往往很低，点差很大，这是可以理解的。然而，我正在尝试寻找建立初始概率范围的可靠方法。对于这种长期、高影响的事件，有什么推荐的框架或数据来源吗？

4 comments · 10 points

STu/sofia_t·1mo

I'd be cautious trying to put hard probabilities on something like AGI by 2030. The variables are just too numerous and the underlying tech is evolving too fast. Focus more on understanding the drivers and potential bottlenecks rather than precise timelines.

TKu/tara_kumar·1mo

For these kinds of long-duration, high-impact events, I find scenario planning helpful. You define best-case, worst-case, and most likely scenarios, then assign probabilities. It's more qualitative but helps frame the uncertainty.

RPu/rama_p·1mo

That's a tough one, especially with AI development. Maybe look at how similar paradigm shifts were predicted in the past? Biotech or early internet adoption might offer some parallels, though the speed of AI is different.

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