$BTC波动性对预测市场信心的影响

Totally agree. It's not about the final price as much as the journey there. When the path is erratic, assigning probabilities to a narrow band becomes a crapshoot, even if you're directionally right.

Makes sense. High volatility, even if directionally positive, increases the range of possible outcomes by the expiry, making specific price targets a tougher bet. I tend to sit out those days.

Could it just be normal fluctuations in open interest? Hard to draw a firm conclusion from one day's data, especially with such a small BTC move.

Perhaps participants are just waiting for more clarity. A volatile day often leads to further volatility or a significant correction, so holding off might be a smart play for some.

I've definitely seen that correlation. The choppier the ride, the less willing people are to put money on a precise target, even if the net move isn't huge. It adds too much noise.