预测第二季度GDP增长——早期指标

Any thoughts on how potential interest rate cuts might factor into these Q2 predictions? Could that change the narrative quickly?

I'm not entirely convinced yet. Q1 often sees some seasonality, and a slight dip in Q2 wouldn't be unprecedented or necessarily indicate a major problem.

I'm keeping an eye on durable goods orders too. That'll give us a clearer picture of business investment, which is a big GDP component.

40% below 1.5% is significant. I wonder how much of that is just normalizing after a strong Q1 vs. a genuine slowdown.

Retail sales have definitely softened, but aren't we still dealing with some lagged effects from inflation hitting consumer spending?