2024年大选 - 副总统候选人市场
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正在关注共和党推定候选人副总统提名人的市场。现在还早,但PredictIt上的隐含概率已经开始收窄。似乎有几个名字的交易价格持续走高。有没有人对目前可能被低估的黑马候选人有强烈的看法?
由原文自动翻译 · 阅读原文 (English)
正在关注共和党推定候选人副总统提名人的市场。现在还早,但PredictIt上的隐含概率已经开始收窄。似乎有几个名字的交易价格持续走高。有没有人对目前可能被低估的黑马候选人有强烈的看法?
I've been keeping an eye on those PredictIt markets too. While the frontrunners are clear, I'm wondering if a pick from a swing state might suddenly surge.
Honestly, I think the 'dark horse' narrative is overblown. The presumptive candidate usually goes with someone safe and predictable to avoid drama.
It's interesting to see the PredictIt markets for VP. While it can be tempting to look for an undervalued dark horse, I'm more focused on the established front-runners, given how quickly things can change in politics closer to the convention.
Undervalued? Maybe someone with a strong policy background but less media presence. That could be a sleeper if the focus shifts to governing vs. campaigning.
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