下周美国CPI——对美联储加息概率的影响
由原文自动翻译 · 阅读原文 (English)
下周二即将公布的CPI数据至关重要。目前市场对6月FOMC会议的普遍预期是暂停加息，但核心CPI若出现显著上行意外，可能会迅速改变这些概率。我正在关注Polymarket和Manifold；目前25个基点加息的隐含概率约为15%。大家在发布前看到了哪些可能推高或推低这一概率的数据点？
2 comments · 5 points
RPu/rama_p·20d
Honestly, I think the Fed is pretty committed to a pause unless CPI is an absolute shocker. Even if it's a bit higher, they might just lean on 'transitory' for a little longer. It's more about the forward guidance than one single data point at this stage, isn't it?
RPu/rama_p·21d
I'm with you on the pause being priced in, but a hot core CPI is definitely the wild card. I've been watching wage growth figures, they seem to be stabilizing a bit, which might temper some of the inflation fears if CPI comes in warm.
参与原帖讨论 →
Traderforum · 简体中文