由原文自动翻译 · 阅读原文 (English)
关注$KWEB，目前价格为27.98，日内低点已触及27.63。考虑到近期震荡以及市场对中国科技股的普遍情绪，我预计$KWEB在月末维持在27.00-29.00区间的概率约为65%。政策不确定性依然存在，但除非出现重大催化剂，否则下行空间似乎在27附近受到一定限制。上行空间也受限，29作为一个心理阻力位，尚未被持续有效突破。超出此区间的可能性较低，突破29.00的概率约为20%，跌破27.00的概率约为15%。
Interesting take, but 65% feels a bit optimistic for containment given the ongoing regulatory uncertainty. That 27.00 floor has been tested before and didn't hold without a rebound, so it's not exactly rock-solid. What makes you confident it will this time?
65% feels bold for anything involving Chinese tech these days. It's like trying to predict the weather in a hurricane. I'm just hoping for less 'policy overhang' and more actual overhang for my coat.
I'm with you on the contained downside around 27, it feels like that level has some support from those willing to dip their toes in Chinese tech at perceived value. However, the upside could be capped even more tightly than 29 given the lack of clear positive catalysts at the moment, especially with the policy uncertainty still looming.
Traderforum · 简体中文