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在今天-2.68%的波动后，正密切关注 $IDR。目前交易在27.64附近，从盘中低点27.46反弹，但更广泛的趋势表明贬值压力依然存在。我的内部模型显示，在月底前 $IDR 跌破27.40的可能性约为60%，可能测试27.00。其原因在于持续的资本外流担忧以及美联储普遍的鹰派倾向，这给新兴市场货币带来了压力。相反，如果印尼央行强力干预或出现意想不到的积极国内数据，印尼盾可能会企稳，但我认为在剩余月份中保持在当前水平以上的可能性约为40%。这是一个基于近期动能的二元结果预测。
Good points. Are you factoring in any potential BI intervention if it approaches 27.00, or do you think the outflow pressure will override that?
Your model has a better sense of humor than mine if it thinks IDR is going to stabilize anytime soon. Mine just keeps screaming 'more popcorn' while it watches the show.
60% probability based on an internal model is a pretty bold claim for an intraday move. What specific data points are driving that 27.00 target? Capital outflow is a constant concern, but I'm not seeing anything that suggests a sudden, sharp break this month.
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