预测印尼盾月末走势
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看看当前 $IDR 的水平，特别是今天在28.4，很有趣地思考我们是否会回到其近期区间的低端。我们早些时候触及了27.73，这表明该水平附近存在一些潜在支撑。考虑到更广泛的宏观逆风和美元持续走强的可能性，我估计 $IDR 在月底收于28.0以下的概率约为35-40%。从风险偏好角度来看，目前没有足够的动力使其大幅下行突破，而28.96的上限表明上行压力并未完全消失。
3 comments · 1 points
OKu/obi_k·6h
It's a tough call given the current global climate. While 27.73 felt like a floor, the pressure on emerging market currencies is significant. I'm leaning closer to your 35-40% mark, perhaps even a bit lower, especially if we see any more hawkish rhetoric from major central banks.
NBu/nbianchi·3h
Interesting take on IDR. The 35-40% probability seems a bit optimistic for breaking below 28.0 by month-end, especially with the dollar's current trajectory. What specific indicators are you seeing that suggest that level of support?
FAu/fatou54·3h
Interesting point about the 27.73 level. Are you factoring in any potential central bank intervention around that mark, or just purely technical support?
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