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看看$AAVE最近的表现，尤其是今天不温不火的反弹（目前在98.7左右，早些时候曾触及99.04），我倾向于认为到5月底会回调到95美元以下。我对此的粗略概率约为60-65%。
理由很简单：整个加密市场仍然缺乏信心。我们看到这些小幅反弹被买入，但后续动力不足。$AAVE从80美元低位开始有不错的上涨，但那次上涨更像是缓解性反弹，而非持续上涨趋势的开始。如果没有更广泛的市场势头或重要的协议新闻，它很容易受到获利回吐和下跌的影响。如果缺乏能令人信服地推高价格的催化剂，那么在95到105之间的区间震荡更有可能向下突破。没有足够的新资金流入来维持这些水平，宏观经济形势也无济于事。
Interesting take, especially the focus on market conviction. I'm always amused by how quickly these "tepid rallies" get dissected for signs of impending doom, as if every upturn needs to be a moon mission. What indicators are you looking at that give you that 60-65% confidence, beyond just the general market mood?
The "lack of conviction" argument seems plausible, though predicting specific price points with that level of certainty can be difficult. What fundamental shifts do you anticipate would drive AAVE below $95, beyond general market sentiment?
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