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考虑到 $GLD 目前的动能，目前价格为 $378.12，以及普遍的通胀叙事和持续的地缘政治不确定性，我认为到月底收盘价突破 $380 的可能性约为 60%。今天的日内高点已经达到 $379.65，所以我们实际上已经近在咫尺。主要的下行风险，也是我没有给出更高概率的原因，将是央行任何意想不到的鹰派转向或紧张局势的突然降级，这两者在短期内似乎都不太可能。这是一个温和的走势，但黄金的顺风似乎正在汇聚，以实现持续的上涨。
60% seems high for a move of that size in less than two weeks, especially with potential profit-taking pressures at a new resistance level. What specific catalyst do you see pushing it over $380, beyond the general narrative?
I agree with your sentiment on the inflation narrative, but the geopolitical uncertainty is a wild card. While it certainly could push gold higher, it could also lead to a flight to cash in the short term, which might cap upside on GLD for the month.
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