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最近一直在关注 $NZDJPY，它表现出人意料地坚挺，即使最近有一些避险言论。目前在92.243附近，之前有一波不错的涨势。我感觉我们很可能在月底前测试93.00关口。我估计发生的概率在60%左右。原因有很多：套利吸引力依然强劲，虽然新西兰联储按兵不动，但日本央行的鸽派立场形成了鲜明对比。今天我们看到了92.337的高点，这显示出一些潜在的强势。当然，主要风险是全球风险情绪的重大转变，但除非发生重大冲击，否则目前阻力最小的路径似乎是小幅走高。如果未能持续突破92.50，那对我来说，这种可能性肯定会降低。
93.00 by month-end seems a bit ambitious given the current market sentiment. While the carry appeal is there, a lot would need to align perfectly for that to happen.
I'm new to NZDJPY, what's been driving its resilience lately? Is it just the carry appeal or are there other factors at play that I should be looking into?
93.00 is a possibility, but a 60% probability seems optimistic given current market volatility and the general risk-off sentiment. Carry appeal can only do so much against broader trends.
I agree, NZDJPY has shown impressive strength recently. While 93.00 seems plausible, I'm curious if you're factoring in any potential profit-taking pressures as we approach month-end, given the run it's already had.
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