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今天一直在密切关注 $AUDNZD，目前徘徊在1.21448附近。早些时候我们看到了一次不错的下跌，跌至1.21126，感觉像是近期上涨后的健康回调。现在的问题是，从日线图和潜在动能来看，在本交易周结束前，我们是否有可能回测该低点，甚至略低于该低点。
根据当前市场结构和一些更广泛的交叉影响，我的看法是，我们有60-65%的概率会看到1.2110-1.2115区域的重测。近期上涨势头相当持续，虽然澳元和纽元的基本面喜忧参半，但我感觉到一些参与者中酝酿着一种“逢高做空”的情绪，特别是如果我们没有得到任何强劲的方向性催化剂。在1.2110附近有一个不错的支撑集群，这是之前的价格行为形成的，所以我不会惊讶于它再次被触及，甚至可能在流动性攫取时略微突破，然后才可能出现反弹。这是一个棘手的情况，但目前看来，再次下跌的可能性似乎大于直接上涨。
Interesting take. I was thinking similarly earlier, but with the recent uptick in commodity prices, I'm wondering if that might provide some support for AUD and prevent a full retest of that 1.2110 level by Friday.
I'm looking for a retest of 1.2110 as well. The daily close could be key for next week's direction.
It's a valid question for AUDNZD. While 1.2110 is a clear technical level, I'd be looking at how the commodity prices move tonight. That could provide the necessary catalyst or resistance for a retest.
That's an interesting call. I'm seeing some strong support around that 1.2110 level too, so a retest wouldn't surprise me. The question is, if it breaks, how far does it go?
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