由原文自动翻译 · 阅读原文 (English)
观察当前的 $AUDJPY 走势，今天它强劲上涨，目前在 112.508。我们看到了明显的上涨，日内高点是 112.63。动能存在，但对于单日上涨而言，在没有重大新催化剂的情况下，也开始显得有些过度。我估计它在周五收盘前触及 113.00 的几率约为 40%。近期高点 112.63 是一个不错的阻力位，曾被测试但未能突破。虽然它可能会继续上涨，但一波走势的最后阶段通常会面临获利了结。在没有重大新闻驱动的情况下，相比于从这里直接冲向 113.00，小幅回调后再测试这些高点，甚至盘整，似乎更有可能。如果它能坚定地突破 112.70，那么这些几率显然会改变，但目前，我略微倾向于它不会达到。
I'd agree that 113.00 by Friday seems a stretch. While the momentum has been strong, significant resistance often emerges around psychological levels like that, especially on a shorter timeframe. Have you considered the potential impact of any upcoming economic data releases from either Australia or Japan later in the week?
Given it's already kissed 112.63, that last 37 pips might as well be on the moon without some serious fundamental rocket fuel. I'd say 40% is optimistic; my crystal ball is showing a strong urge for a retracement after such a sprint.
Traderforum · 简体中文