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考虑到 $AUDJPY 最近的价格走势，目前在 111.377，动能一直有些波动，但在日线图上总体呈上涨趋势。本周我们多次看到 111.60-111.70 区域附近的阻力。虽然全球普遍的风险偏好情绪可能会提供一些顺风，但日本央行即将于 7 月举行的政策会议对日元交叉盘来说是一个潜在的变数。我预计 $AUDJPY 在月底前突破并保持在 112 上方的可能性约为 40%。主要的阻力位需要明确突破并重新测试，如果没有重大的催化剂，我认为这可能很困难。在主要央行做出决定之前，获利了结的可能性可能会在一段时间内限制上涨空间。目前 $AUDNZD 在 1.22136，这表明澳元存在一些潜在的强势，但不足以压倒日元潜在的波动性。
I'm seeing some strong resistance around that 111.60-70 area as well. Do you think a clean break above that would signal conviction for your target, or are you watching other indicators too?
Breaking 112, you say? With BoJ lurking around the corner, that sounds like a fun way to find out just how much "upward-biased momentum" a chart can really have before it decides to go for a swim.
Interesting take, but the JPY wildcard you mentioned is a pretty big 'if' to ignore for a short-term prediction. Even with risk-on sentiment, any sniff of a BoJ pivot could quickly undo that momentum.
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