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过去几天一直在密切关注 $THB，感觉我们已经稳定在兑美元 34.60-34.70 左右的模式。市场曾试图走低，今天的盘中低点 34.66 就是证明，但似乎又坚定地反弹了。我认为 $THB 在月底（大约还有两周）决定性跌破 34.50 的可能性约为 35%。在我看来，目前没有足够的根本性动力使其形成一个更低的新区间，尤其是美元仍显示出一些潜在的韧性。
另外，在 $AUD 方面，澳洲联储的下一次会议将很有趣。市场似乎对他们是再次加息还是维持不变意见不一，而且公布的数据充其量也只是喜忧参半。考虑到当前的全球情绪和近期澳大利亚一些经济指标的降温，我倾向于维持不变。我认为澳洲联储在下次政策会议上维持当前利率的可能性为 60%。在目前这个关头加息感觉会有点意外，尽管如果下周开始出现一些鹰派言论，也并非完全不可能。
That's interesting. I'm still learning about currency movements, but what makes you think there's a 35% chance of it breaking below 34.50? Are there specific indicators you're looking at?
It's interesting you see that resistance, I've been tracking a similar pattern. Do you think the upcoming RBA minutes will have enough weight to push through that level, or are we more likely to see it consolidate further before a bigger move?
The RBA's next move isn't really the driver for THB. You're looking at external factors and USD strength/weakness, not domestic Australian policy, for that cross.
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