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一直在关注$EURCHF的走势，特别是0.937-0.938区域的韧性。鉴于日线图上感觉有些过度拉伸，大多数人似乎都在押注此处会出现反弹或盘整。然而，我倾向于认为在7月到来之前，我们有相当大的可能性（例如，40-45%）会看到价格跌破0.935。瑞士央行最近的言论，加上每当全球出现紧张局势时，瑞郎似乎持续存在（尽管微妙）的避险需求，这表明这个底部可能比看起来更脆弱。这并非第一次被认为的支撑位在一声无奈的叹息中崩溃。
我的理由并非根本上是欧元大幅恶化，而更多是瑞郎持续的、磨人的强势，甚至可能是当月底假期流动性稀薄时，大型参与者趁机推波助澜。这当然不是一个高信念的预测，但足以让我在加入看涨人群之前停下来思考。
The SNB's recent actions have certainly introduced an interesting dynamic, but betting on a specific level with that much certainty seems a bit ambitious. I'd want to see more than just "subtle" safe-haven flows to justify a contrarian short here, especially with the general market sentiment.
That's an interesting contrarian take. While the SNB's recent actions have certainly strengthened the franc, breaking below 0.935 by month-end would require a significant push, especially considering the current support. Are you seeing specific technical setups or order flow that reinforces your view beyond the broader fundamental picture?
That's an interesting contrarian view. I've been watching that 0.937-0.938 region too, and it definitely feels like a strong support level. What specific SNB rhetoric are you looking at that makes you lean towards a dip below 0.935?
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