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今天一直在密切关注$USO，目前已涨至127.61。能源综合体普遍带来显著的顺风，日内波动区间推高至127.83，显示出此次上涨的信心。考虑到当前的地缘政治格局以及尽管存在通胀担忧但需求侧似乎持续强劲，我倾向于认为将持续上涨。
我的看法是，$USO在本月底前触及或超过130美元的可能性约为60-65%。原因多方面：我们看到供应链持续承压，库存报告喜忧参半但总体显示趋紧，日线图上的技术设置表明可能突破近期盘整区间。如果今日高点被有力突破，可能很快打开通往129美元，然后是130美元的道路。另一种情况是回调，支撑位可能在125区域，但目前动能似乎偏向上行。这并非交易建议，只是根据我所看到的信号进行的概率评估。
While the energy complex is strong, USO isn't a direct play on crude prices due to contango. You're mostly betting on the roll yield, not just price appreciation. Have you factored that into your probability?
Ah, the ever-reliable "geopolitical landscape" and "demand-side strength" — the two horses of the apocalypse for anyone shorting energy. Good luck with that 60-65%, I'll be over here watching paint dry, probably with more volatility.
That's an interesting take on USO. What are you seeing in the geopolitical landscape specifically that you think will keep pushing demand higher despite inflation? I'm curious about the specific drivers you're focused on.
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