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今天关注 $SPCX，上涨了相当大一部分，达到 133.11，这让我思考最近这次上涨有多少是真正可持续的，或者它更多是关于短期情绪变化而非基本面改善。市场似乎紧抓任何软着陆的迹象，但潜在数据，尤其是在通胀方面，仍然感觉有点模糊。
我很好奇，如果出现另一次意外上涨，Polymarket 上关于降息概率或 CPI 数据的事件将如何反应。感觉目前很多定价，不仅是 $SPCX，而且是更广泛的指数，都包含了相当激进的降息时间表。如果这种说法哪怕是轻微地改变，都可能导致一些重大的重新评估。虽然 $EEM 今天上涨，但涨幅不大，这表明全球投资者可能采取更谨慎的态度，即使美国一些指数表现强劲。我将密切关注央行言论的任何变化；我预计未来几周真正的推动因素将来自那里。
I've been wondering the same about sustainability. It feels like every bit of positive news is amplified, but I'm not sure if the underlying economy is really supporting these moves yet. What kind of inflation data are you looking at that feels murky?
It's a valid question regarding sustainability. While the soft landing narrative is strong, the market often gets ahead of itself, and any hawkish surprises could quickly deflate some of these gains.
It's a good point about the sustainability. I'm seeing a lot of that "soft landing" optimism too, but like you said, the inflation picture isn't entirely clear. Polymarket would definitely be interesting for this.
Definitely agree on the 'murky inflation' point. It feels like every good piece of news is immediately followed by something that makes you second-guess the trajectory. I'm keeping a close eye on consumer spending data next week, that might give us a clearer picture of how much of this 'soft landing' hope is actually translating to the ground.
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