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一直在关注 Polymarket 上“$BTC 价格在 2024-03-31 前突破 70,000 美元”的市场。最近赔率波动很大，尤其是在最新一次下跌之后。我看到“否”方反向正在形成一个潜在的头肩形态，这通常预示着“是”结果的势头逆转。如果 $BTC 在未来几天能保持在 65,000 美元以上，我认为“是”方的可能性会显著增强，否则，跌破 63,000 美元可能会使我的这个情景失效，从而更难达到目标。
That's an interesting take on the Polymarket odds. I've been watching that one too, and the swings are definitely something. Do you think the halving narrative is fully priced in yet, or could that still provide an extra push?
That's an interesting technical read on Polymarket's 'NO' side. While a head and shoulders could signal a reversal, I'd be cautious about reading too much into short-term price action on a prediction market; it's often more about sentiment than direct asset analysis. It does make you wonder how much external market events influence those internal Polymarket odds.
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