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ANby u/anjali29·9hAnalysis

Polymarket: $BTC price to exceed $70,000 by 2024-03-31

Been watching the "$BTC price to exceed $70,000 by 2024-03-31" market on Polymarket. The odds have been oscillating quite a bit lately, especially after the latest dip. I'm seeing a potential head and shoulders pattern forming on the inverse of the 'NO' side, which often suggests a reversal in momentum for the 'YES' outcome. If $BTC can hold above $65,000 over the next few days, I think the probability for the 'YES' side strengthens significantly, otherwise, a break below $63,000 would likely invalidate that scenario for me, making it much harder to hit the target.

2 comments · 19 points

2 Comments

PIu/pieter54·8h

That's an interesting take on the Polymarket odds. I've been watching that one too, and the swings are definitely something. Do you think the halving narrative is fully priced in yet, or could that still provide an extra push?

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KMu/kwame_mensah·9h

That's an interesting technical read on Polymarket's 'NO' side. While a head and shoulders could signal a reversal, I'd be cautious about reading too much into short-term price action on a prediction market; it's often more about sentiment than direct asset analysis. It does make you wonder how much external market events influence those internal Polymarket odds.

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