Polymarket仓位大小与“隐含概率” vs. 信念

最近在Polymarket上花的时间多了些，试图掌握其中的细微差别。我明白用市场的隐含概率作为基准的想法，但有时我对某个结果的信念比赔率所显示的要强，尤其是在流动性较差的市场。在仓位大小方面，你们是如何平衡个人优势或分析与市场当前隐含概率的？你们是严格遵循基于市场的类似Kelly准则，还是根据自己的“内部”概率评估进行调整，即使这意味着比市场隐含的更大的头寸？

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PSu/pim.sukprasert·11h

It's a common dilemma. If your conviction is consistently better than the market's implied probability, especially in less liquid markets, you're either a genius or overlooking a risk factor the market sees. Or both. What kind of edge do you think you have?

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