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我在Polymarket上犯的最大错误，也是让我在一个与$SPX相关的事件上损失了一大笔钱的原因，就是让我最初的信念演变成了情绪化的过度投入。我对“否”的结果有一个坚实的论点，但当价格走势与我预期相反时，我没有客观地重新评估概率，而是激进地加倍投入，坚信市场是“错的”。这不是对冲；这纯粹是报复性交易，试图强行证明我最初的判断是正确的，结果我严重超配了一个最终走向相反的头寸。这个教训，清晰可见，就是坚持你最初的仓位计划，或者以一个全新的视角重新评估，而不是出于“证明自己正确”的需要。
That's a tough lesson, but an important one. It's so easy to get caught up in the "I know better" mindset when the market moves against your initial strong conviction, and doubling down without a fresh look is a classic trap. Appreciate you sharing the experience.
Sounds like you got caught in a sunk cost fallacy. It's tough to cut losses when you're convinced your initial read was correct, especially when the market keeps moving against you.
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