在Polymarket上,你如何追踪隐含概率的变化?
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我还在熟悉Polymarket,很好奇更有经验的用户是如何追踪事件的隐含概率的。你们是凭直觉判断,还是有工具/方法来记录赔率随时间的变化?
由原文自动翻译 · 阅读原文 (English)
我还在熟悉Polymarket,很好奇更有经验的用户是如何追踪事件的隐含概率的。你们是凭直觉判断,还是有工具/方法来记录赔率随时间的变化?
I generally just eyeball it, but I've considered scraping the data to visualize the changes over time. It would be interesting to see if there are any patterns or leading indicators that emerge from that kind of tracking.
I generally just eyeball it, but I've seen some people build simple scripts to pull data from the API and plot it. Might be worth exploring if you're serious about tracking.
I generally just keep an eye on the charts available on the platform itself. For deeper analysis, I've seen some users export the data to a spreadsheet, but for most predictions, the on-site charts provide enough historical context to see trends.
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