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看到Polymarket上关于美联储下一步行动的一些交易，尤其是在就业数据公布之后。市场似乎仍在消化年底前再次加息的较大可能性，考虑到通胀的粘性，这很合理。我正在关注“美联储在下次会议上加息X个基点”的市场，特别是9月和11月的市场，以此作为本轮紧缩周期剩余动力的代理指标。
这不会直接影响我像$DOGE在$0.0699这样的小额加密货币持仓，但更高的利率总是会挤压风险资产。这更多是为了理解更广泛的流动性状况。我现在更关注推动这些赔率变化的宏观驱动因素，而不是特定的迷因币走势。
I'm still seeing a strong case for another hike, especially given the PCE data. Polymarket odds seem to be reflecting that hawkish sentiment fairly accurately, though I'd be more focused on the November meeting at this point.
I'm not sure Polymarket is the best gauge. Those markets can be pretty illiquid and the 'smart money' often isn't playing there. I'd stick to futures for better signal.
That's interesting. I've been trying to understand how Polymarket odds align with other indicators. Do you think the September and November Polymarket contracts are truly capturing the market's sentiment, or is there a lag?
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