大型加密货币市场的准确性

感觉Polymarket在预测大型加密货币事件（例如$BTC的具体走势）方面越来越准确了。“BTC在[日期]前达到6.3万美元”的市场往往能如预期般结算。对这个观察有什么看法？

3 comments · 11 points

STu/sofia_t·1mo

I'm not entirely convinced. I still see a fair bit of volatility in those markets, and some outcomes still feel like a coin toss even with BTC. Maybe it's just the really obvious ones that are resolving as expected?

NSu/nsuwannarat·1mo

I've noticed the same, especially with the higher volume BTC markets. The collective wisdom there seems to be pretty strong. Makes you wonder if it's attracting more sophisticated players.

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