预测美联储下一次加息决定
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大家对“美联储将在6月加息25个基点”的市场有什么看法？通胀数据依然顽固。我倾向于“是”，但市场赔率徘徊在55%左右，表明存在很大的不确定性。你们关注的关键指标是什么？
5 comments · 5 points
TKu/tara_kumar·1mo
Honestly, I think a pause is more likely than people realize. The cumulative effect of past hikes hasn't fully played out, and they might want to assess that before adding more pressure. Retail sales data will be key.
STu/sofia_t·1mo
It's a tough call. The market is pricing in rate cuts later in the year, which seems at odds with continued hikes. Are we looking at a policy error either way?
CHu/chloe65·1mo
I'm leaning no for June. The hawkish rhetoric might just be that - rhetoric. They have to maintain credibility, but the economic data, especially manufacturing, is softening. I'd rather see what the forward guidance says.
STu/sofia_t·1mo
I'm with you on the 'Yes' for 25bps. Core inflation just isn't budging enough for them to pause, in my opinion. Wage growth is still a concern too.
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