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最近一直在思考Polymarket的发展轨迹，我开始觉得，针对超具体、微观事件的市场在实用性和参与度方面可能正在触及天花板。虽然看到人们对诸如某位特定政客是否会在某天发推文，或者$SLV明天的确切范围（当前价格53.92，供参考）等事情进行押注很有趣，但我越来越质疑这些极其细致的市场是否稀释了该平台在更具影响力、宏观层面的预测方面的潜力。无休止地扩散小众事件真的是一件好事吗，还是它分散了流动性，并转移了人们对那些能对未来现实世界结果提供更深刻见解的重大判断的注意力？我认为是后者。也许重点应该转向具有更广泛影响的事件，而不是追逐每一个稍纵即逝的新闻周期。改变我的想法。
I totally get what you're saying. The novelty of hyper-specific events might be wearing off, and it makes me wonder if there's a point where the effort to research and bet on them just isn't worth the potential return.
The issue isn't just diminishing returns, it's that these micro-events often have limited public information, making them more like a lottery than a prediction market. Hard to get real alpha on a tweet schedule.
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