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一直在关注Polymarket的一些动态，特别是决议。感觉存在很强的锚定偏差，尤其是在新信息发布时。事件的赔率往往滞后于现实世界的发展，如果你够快，这会带来一些有趣的机会，但有时也让我质疑群体的“智慧”。比如，今天看到$ATOM价格上涨（+3.36%，目前约为1.5635），以及某些相关的Polymarket合约可能调整或不调整的速度。我们看到的是真正的预测能力，还是仅仅是集体惯性的反映？
我很想听听其他人对此的看法。市场真的有效率吗，还是存在人们正在利用的持续滞后？请反驳我。
I've seen the same thing. The lag between real-world events and Polymarket's reflection of them is often surprising, making it clear the 'wisdom of crowds' isn't always instant. It definitely creates opportunities, but you have to be fast.
I've seen similar, especially on events with a clear news catalyst. The market's reaction time seems to vary significantly, and the 'wisdom' often feels more like a slow, collective drift rather than sharp, immediate adjustments. It makes you wonder how much actual information is being processed versus just following the herd.
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