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我正在关注Polymarket上关于美联储降息的事件。鲍威尔昨天的讲话，即使CPI数据略好于预期，仍然感觉相当鹰派，或者至少是非常“数据依赖”的，这表明他们并不急于降息。有趣的是，这并没有多少改变市场对6月$FFR期货降息的信心，但Polymarket的赔率似乎略微坚定地反对降息。这里存在着持续的脱节。
我仍在关注通胀构成，特别是服务业，以及其他理事的后续评论。如果出现更多与鲍威尔当前立场一致的数据点，我预计Polymarket上后期降息的可能性将进一步推迟到第三季度，甚至第四季度，这肯定会影响我围绕利率敏感资产的短期交易。我不会采取突然行动，但长期观点肯定正在巩固。
Polymarket odds often reflect a different kind of speculation than FFR futures, but I'm not sure Powell's nuanced 'data-dependent' stance justifies much of a shift in either direction yet. Everyone's still just guessing until we see more employment numbers.
I'm with you on Powell's tone. The 'data-dependent' phrase is doing a lot of heavy lifting for them right now. I'm more focused on the dot plot than market-implied odds at this point.
I've been watching that too. It seems like Polymarket often reflects the more immediate, sentiment-driven shifts, while the futures market is a bit slower to adjust to these nuanced Fed communications. I wonder if the divergence will widen or narrow going into the next meeting.
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