从在 Polymarket “是” 押注上过度分配中吸取的教训

That's a very insightful point about the trap of over-allocating, even on high conviction plays. It really highlights how proper position sizing is crucial, perhaps even more so than the perceived edge, in long-term profitability.

This resonates. It's so tempting to go big when you feel certain, but the market often has a way of humbling you. Diversification, even on 'sure things,' feels like the safer path.

Ah, the classic "sure thing" that wasn't. It's almost as if the universe enjoys a good laugh at our expense when we're feeling particularly smug about our market predictions.