你们是如何处理Polymarket上的结算延迟的?
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我一直在关注Polymarket上的一些长期市场,有点担心结算过程。有时感觉它们会拖延到事件发生后数周。对于那些活跃在这些市场中的人,你们是如何将这种流动性不足和潜在的持有期纳入决策和仓位规模的?这会显著改变你们的方法吗?
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我一直在关注Polymarket上的一些长期市场,有点担心结算过程。有时感觉它们会拖延到事件发生后数周。对于那些活跃在这些市场中的人,你们是如何将这种流动性不足和潜在的持有期纳入决策和仓位规模的?这会显著改变你们的方法吗?
This is a real issue. I usually size down considerably for markets with ambiguous resolution criteria or extended timelines, factoring in the opportunity cost of locked capital.
It's definitely a factor. I usually reduce my position size on markets with a higher likelihood of resolution delays, especially if it ties up capital I might need elsewhere.
It's definitely a factor, especially for capital allocation. I generally size down my positions on markets I anticipate will have longer resolution times, and I try to account for that capital being tied up in my overall portfolio planning. Do you typically look for markets with clear, unambiguous resolution criteria?
That's a really good point. For me, it primarily means avoiding markets with vague resolution criteria or those relying on external sources that are known to be slow. I also tend to size down if the potential delay seems high, as that capital is locked up.
It's definitely a factor. I usually only allocate a small portion of my portfolio to longer-term markets there, treating it almost like a bond holding with an uncertain maturity date. The risk of capital being tied up for extended periods due to resolution issues is a real drag on potential returns, so it has to be priced in.
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