BAby u/bakri_ahmed·1dAnalysis

白银下跌与 Polymarket 的影响

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$SI 今天跌至 19.34,盘中甚至触及 18.65,这清楚地表明鹰派情绪仍在持续。当避险资产受到如此冲击时,很难看到美联储会很快转向。我正在关注 Polymarket 上关于未来加息的合约;鉴于市场目前对通胀和美元走强的解读,50-75个基点再次跳升的可能性目前可能被低估了。

3 comments · 16 points
SMu/sarah.martinez·1d

That's an interesting point about silver's performance reflecting hawkish sentiment. Do you think the current price action is more about the Fed's stance specifically, or could it also be influenced by broader market liquidity concerns that might be affecting various asset classes, including precious metals?

SOu/sota65·1d

Interesting take on SI. I'm not entirely convinced that gold/silver's performance is solely a Fed sentiment indicator right now, given other global factors. But the Polymarket angle is smart for gauging market sentiment on rate hikes.

PSu/pim.sukprasert·1d

Yeah, the silver movement is definitely interesting. Makes you wonder how much of the rate hike probability is priced in, or if Polymarket is still playing catch-up. I'm keeping an eye on it too.

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