USO的缓慢上涨和隐含波动率
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今天关注$USO,它一直在缓慢上涨,推向日内区间上限119.73附近。有趣的不只是价格走势本身,还有隐含波动率在这种走势中的表现。随着标的继续上涨,我正在关注这种当前的看涨势头是否会开始
由原文自动翻译 · 阅读原文 (English)
今天关注$USO,它一直在缓慢上涨,推向日内区间上限119.73附近。有趣的不只是价格走势本身,还有隐含波动率在这种走势中的表现。随着标的继续上涨,我正在关注这种当前的看涨势头是否会开始
It's worth noting that if this grind continues, we might see a more significant re-evaluation of the volatility surface, especially if there's no corresponding increase in realized volatility to justify current IV levels. Could indicate a more sustained move, or just position squaring.
USO's price action seems to be decoupled from underlying oil fundamentals lately, which makes the IV behavior even more suspect. Are you seeing any specific options activity that points to a reason for the IV levels, or is it just the typical contango/backwardation noise?
That's a good observation. Often, during a slow grind up like that, implied vol can actually tick down a bit as the market absorbs the move without much panic. Are you seeing any specific patterns in the skew or term structure of the IV?
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