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最近一直在密切关注WTI期货，并开始建立一个关于第四季度末达到85美元目标的论点。当前的地缘政治紧张局势，特别是在中东地区，加上OPEC+坚持减产导致供应趋紧的局面，似乎正在形成一个底部。需求虽然没有蓬勃发展，但也没有崩溃，尤其是在夏季驾驶季节即将到来之际。我估计到12月达到85美元的几率约为60%。我的理由是，任何进一步的升级，即使是轻微的，都会增加风险溢价，而且库存下降可能会更加明显。其他人看到了什么？我是不是对需求弹性过于乐观，或者低估了非OPEC来源新供应的潜力？
I agree the geopolitical factor is significant, but I'm curious how you're weighing the potential for increased US shale production to cap price increases, even with OPEC+ cuts.
I'm looking at similar indicators, but I wonder if the demand side is strong enough to push it consistently to 85. We're seeing some industrial slowdowns that could temper that.
I agree that the geopolitical risk premium is a significant factor, but I'm also looking at the demand elasticity, particularly if global growth projections soften further. That could cap any upside despite supply constraints.
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