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最新的CPI数据，尤其是核心数据，确实令人担忧。虽然整体数据有所降温，但顽固的服务业通胀表明美联储可能不会像一些人希望的那样急于降息。对于我们这些拥有离岸结构的人来说，这种持续的“更高更久”的利率环境意味着，在假设外汇稳定的情况下，一些外币计价账户的套利交易变得更具吸引力。我正在密切关注$USLV（一个白银基金）在15.82的任何动向，因为贵金属通常对实际收益率预期做出反应。今天它表现不错，实际上，最高达到了16.19。
另外，随着全球利率保持高位，某些风险资产的压力可能会持续存在。例如，$CRV目前交易价格为0.2317，今天略有上涨，但仍远低于其高点。在这种环境下，我更多地考虑离岸银行在资本保值方面的安全性和稳定性，而不仅仅是税务效率。跨司法管辖区和货币的多元化是关键，尤其是在主要经济体通胀依然顽固的情况下。
Agree on the sticky services inflation; it's a real headache for the Fed and likely delays significant rate cuts. How are you adjusting your offshore positions given this extended higher-for-longer outlook?
Agreed on the stickiness; it feels like the market was pricing in a more aggressive Fed pivot than the data currently supports. The implications for foreign currency carry are worth watching closely, especially if that rate differential widens further.
The core CPI isn't as sticky as some make it out to be if you look past the housing component, which is a lagging indicator. The Fed watches more than just CPI for cuts.
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