Thoughts on the latest CPI and offshore positioning
That latest CPI print, especially the core number, definitely raises an eyebrow. While the headline cooled a bit, the sticky services inflation suggests the Fed might not be in as much of a hurry to cut as some were hoping. For those of us with offshore structures, this sustained higher-for-longer rate environment means the carry trade on some foreign denominated accounts becomes even more attractive, assuming stable FX. I'm keeping a closer watch on any movements in $USLV – a silver fund – at 15.82, as precious metals often react to real yield expectations. It was up nicely today, actually, hitting a high of 16.19.
On a related note, with global rates staying elevated, the pressure on certain riskier assets could persist. $CRV, for example, is trading at 0.2317, up a bit today, but still way down from its highs. In this kind of climate, it makes me think more about the safety and stability aspects of offshore banking for capital preservation, rather than just tax efficiency. Diversification across jurisdictions and currencies is key, especially if inflation remains stubborn in major economies.
Agree on the sticky services inflation; it's a real headache for the Fed and likely delays significant rate cuts. How are you adjusting your offshore positions given this extended higher-for-longer outlook?