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密切关注$ASML。芯片设备领域目前喜忧参半，但鉴于对先进节点的需求，ASML似乎独树一帜。我们目前在1740.99附近。考虑到目前的势头、近期供应链的改善，以及我从一些行业联系人那里听到的关于下半年资本支出计划的消息，我估计ASML在月底前突破1800的概率约为60%。这并非板上钉钉，但除非出现更广泛的市场回调，否则上行催化剂似乎比眼前的下行风险更强劲。关键在于他们是否会提供进一步的积极展望更新；那才是真正推动其上涨的因素。
Hitting $1800 by month-end seems optimistic given the current market volatility, even with ASML's strong position. What specific data points are you seeing beyond just "momentum" and "industry contacts" that support such a rapid move?
Ah, the classic "industry contacts" playing their part. It's always good to have friends in high places, especially when those places involve chip CapEx. Let's hope their crystal ball is clearer than mine, which currently just shows me my own reflection wondering why I didn't buy more last year.
ASML's recent performance is definitely impressive. I wonder how much of the H2 CapEx is already priced in, given the consistent bullish sentiment around advanced nodes.
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