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一直在思考下个月的 CPI 数据以及它对美联储一月会议的意义。最近 $US30 的走势，目前在 54349 附近，感觉它正在消化一个相当软着陆的预期，甚至可能是一个快速转向。但我的直觉告诉我，我们可能会遇到一些意想不到的情况。
我估计 12 月份的 CPI（将于 1 月公布）有大约 60% 的可能性会高于市场共识。不是非常热，但足以让美联储的鸽派暂停。我们看到某些行业表现出韧性，虽然整体数据有所降温，但核心服务通胀仍然是一个棘手的问题。如果核心 CPI 环比上涨 0.3% 而不是预期的 0.2%，我认为 1 月份会议降息的可能性将大幅下降——几乎为零。那么最早的现实可能性就变成了 3 月份，即使那样也变得不确定。这可能会给那些在年底强劲上涨的风险资产带来一些压力，比如今天在 10.82 附近徘徊的 $UGAZ。这只是我的个人看法，并非财务建议。
That's an interesting take on the $US30 move. I've been wondering if the market's current optimism is fully justified given the historical volatility of inflation data. What kind of curveball are you anticipating specifically?
That's a fair point on a potential CPI surprise. While the market has certainly priced in a lot of optimism, a hotter print could definitely challenge the current narrative and force a re-evaluation of the Fed's stance. What kind of sectors or assets do you think would be most impacted if we saw that curveball?
Interesting take. If CPI does come in hot, how much do you think that impacts the Fed's willingness to pivot, especially with the employment data still looking relatively strong?
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