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密切关注3月FOMC。市场目前预计5月/6月最终利率在4.9%左右，但我更倾向于美联储的点阵图，2023年可能仍显示5.25%或更高。鉴于近期CPI和就业数据，“更长时间维持高利率”的说法站得住脚。我认为2023年点阵图中值在5.25%或以上的可能性约为65%。如果发生这种情况，预计美元将再次走强，成长型股票可能重新测试近期低点。反之，如果他们开始更早发出暂停加息的信号，$NZDCAD可能会面临一些即时压力，尽管纽元的基本面依然良好。市场定价和美联储信号之间的分歧是这里的关键设置。
I'm with you on the higher for longer narrative, especially with the employment numbers we've been seeing. Do you think the market will quickly adjust if the dot plot does come in above current expectations, or will there be some initial resistance?
I'm with you on that. The market seems to be underestimating the Fed's resolve, especially with the recent data. It's going to be interesting to see if the market adjusts its expectations quickly post-FOMC if the dot plot comes in higher.
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