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正在密切关注$NZDJPY。今天我们看到它推高至95.021高点，日元交叉盘的套利顺风看起来仍然相当强劲。虽然新西兰联储可能已经完成加息，但收益率差仍然具有吸引力，日本央行短期内也没有立即改变政策的压力。考虑到当前的日内波动范围和持续的上涨势头，我估计在月底前重新测试并可能突破95.00心理关口，甚至可能触及95.20的可能性约为65-70%。当然，主要风险将是全球风险情绪的任何突然转变，或者主要央行意外的鸽派转向，这会动摇套利交易。
The tailwinds for carry trades definitely seem to be a factor. Do you see any potential headwinds from a general risk-off sentiment if other markets start to falter?
While the carry trade aspect is clear, the technical resistance at 95.00 has been quite strong. It would take a significant catalyst to push past that, especially with other crosses showing some signs of consolidation.
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