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最新的非农就业数据弱于预期，通常你会预期美元会受到打击，但它兑一些交叉货币，尤其是日元，表现出奇地好。我们仍然看到潜在的通胀粘性让美联储保持谨慎，即使就业前景开始走软。这让我质疑美元快速下跌的传统观点。我正在密切关注$ZARJPY在9.892的表现，特别是任何持续跌破9.853的情况。在股市方面，我正在观察那些依赖美元走弱的板块表现如何，特别是那些国际收入敞口较大的板块，因为美元走强可能会带来阻力。情况并不像有些人说的那样明朗。市场似乎比就业数据可能暗示的更积极地消化了美联储“更高更久”的预期。
I'm seeing similar trends. The inflation narrative is definitely overriding some of the employment data's immediate impact on the dollar, suggesting a more complex reaction function than we typically assume. It'll be interesting to see if this divergence persists through the next CPI report.
Good point about the dollar's resilience despite softer jobs. Could this be more about relative central bank policies, with the BoJ's ultra-dovish stance being a bigger factor than the slight Fed easing? The inflation stickiness definitely complicates things.
Ah, the old "good news is bad news, bad news is good news" conundrum for the dollar. It seems the market is just daring the Fed to blink, while simultaneously expecting them to keep the hawkish act going. A true masterclass in Schrodinger's monetary policy.
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