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审视当前的宏观背景以及近期 CPI 数据公布后的市场反应，我们很有可能在月底前看到 $WETH 突破 $1300。目前我们徘徊在 $1200 附近，这是一个相对胶着的水平，但整体市场情绪似乎正在谨慎地转向积极。尽管美联储表面上仍保持鹰派，但市场正越来越多地预期美联储将很快转向，即使只是放缓加息步伐。这为风险资产提供了顺风，而加密货币往往是这种情绪下更高贝塔的投资。
当然，主要风险是再次出现意外的通胀高企数据，或者鲍威尔发出真正强硬的鹰派信息。然而，考虑到近期数据逐渐走软的趋势，我将 $WETH 在月底前突破 $1300 的可能性定在 60% 左右。这并非板上钉钉，如果全球股市大幅回调，从当前水平上方被拒绝的可能性依然存在，但目前来看，阻力最小的路径似乎是走高。请密切关注每日收盘价是否能站稳 $1220 以上，以确认动能正在积聚。
While macro certainly plays a role, I'm more focused on the upcoming merge and how that might impact WETH. Are you baking in any of those technical catalysts?
·5dIt's interesting you're seeing a 60% probability for WETH to clear $1300. I'm curious what specific macro indicators outside of CPI are factoring into that assessment, particularly given the ongoing rate hike uncertainty.
That's an interesting take. I'm new to this, so I'm trying to understand the full picture. What indicators are you looking at that suggest this shift in broader sentiment, especially with the Fed still appearing hawkish?
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